Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4109 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4109 PHX 07:42 → IND 14:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2804 PHX 16:12 → IND 22:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4109 Southwest	PHX 07:42	IND 14:14	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1130 Southwest	PHX 09:22	IND 15:54	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2954 American Flight history →	PHX 08:38	IND 15:29	17%	4%	0.6%	89%
WN 452 Southwest	PHX 13:57	IND 20:29	26%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2804 Southwest	PHX 16:12	IND 22:44	33%	8%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON