tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39UA 1451 6h 39m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 36m Dulles IAD 17:53 → JAX 20:08UA 293 8h 18m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 14:07 → JAX 15:19DL 2990 6h 34m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765 1h 36m Chicago ORD 14:27 → JAX 17:57AA 3486 · flown by Envoy 7h 57m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:34 → JAX 17:50DL 2440 7h 35m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 3h 24m Chicago ORD 15:52 → JAX 19:16UA 1284 9h 26m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:23 → EWR 14:20UA 1222 1h 16m Newark EWR 15:36 → JAX 18:08UA 1391 8h 45m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 2h 57m Houston IAH 20:00 → JAX 23:20UA 2293 8h 00m 97% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 59m Chicago ORD 19:07 → JAX 22:48AA 3173 7h 33m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON