Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 546 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 546 PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 136 PHX 15:03 → JFK 22:46 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 546 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	JFK 13:59	8%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 1587 American Flight history →	PHX 21:50	JFK 05:47	14%	4%	1.3%	87%
AA 636 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	JFK 14:59	16%	3%	0.9%	89%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	PHX 12:15	JFK 20:40	21%	6%	0.8%	80%
AA 2339 American Flight history →	PHX 09:56	JFK 18:01	23%	6%	0.9%	87%
AA 832 American Flight history →	PHX 15:51	JFK 23:58	23%	7%	0.9%	76%
AA 475 American	PHX 12:56	JFK 21:00	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
B6 136 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 15:03	JFK 22:46	29%	11%	1.2%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 20:21 → JFK 23:52DL 2692	7h 01m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:00 → MSP 12:03DL 2553	51m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 00m	89%	74%
American Details →	PHX 05:08 → ORD 10:42AA 3062	55m Chicago	ORD 11:37 → JFK 15:00AA 3225	6h 52m	83%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON