Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:42, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 663 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	KOA 14:06	21%	5%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 11:57 → LAX 13:28DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311	10h 20m	98%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 23m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	12h 37m	99%	83%
American Details →	PHX 08:20 → LAX 09:50AA 1892	3h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10AA 59	10h 50m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	11h 16m	97%	75%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:42 → HNL 12:16AS 835	2h 58m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	10h 19m	98%	72%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:43 → SEA 15:41AS 609	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 17:49 → KOA 20:44AS 238	11h 01m	98%	69%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:57 → SEA 08:50AS 605	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 10:16 → KOA 13:14AS 709	10h 17m	95%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON