Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2798 at 05:27 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2798 PHX 05:27 → LAS 06:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1505 PHX 17:08 → LAS 18:26 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2798 Southwest	PHX 05:27	LAS 06:38	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 1343 Southwest	PHX 07:22	LAS 08:49	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 3281 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:02	LAS 10:24	8%	2%	0.8%	100%
WN 3405 Southwest	PHX 11:22	LAS 12:44	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1956 American	PHX 07:14	LAS 08:33	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2315 Southwest	PHX 12:37	LAS 13:59	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2109 American Flight history →	PHX 10:03	LAS 11:31	16%	4%	0.7%	82%
F9 1019 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:45	LAS 08:51	16%	5%	1.0%	84%
AA 457 American	PHX 11:06	LAS 12:30	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3101 Southwest	PHX 14:27	LAS 15:59	21%	6%	1.1%	no record
F9 3983 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 19:14	LAS 20:40	21%	12%	1.6%	93%worse than usual
AA 2631 American	PHX 13:35	LAS 14:53	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 4454 Southwest	PHX 17:52	LAS 19:19	25%	11%	1.4%	no record
WN 225 Southwest	PHX 16:52	LAS 18:19	28%	11%	1.7%	no record
AA 1505 American	PHX 17:08	LAS 18:26	32%	13%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON