Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4057 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 4057 PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2515 PHX 21:49 → LAX 23:14 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4057 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:32	6%	3%	0.6%	97%
WN 882 Southwest	PHX 07:47	LAX 09:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 11:56	LAX 13:28	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
OO 5939 SkyWest	PHX 06:32	LAX 08:12	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6032 SkyWest	PHX 10:27	LAX 12:14	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:37	LAX 12:08	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 3680 Southwest	PHX 10:32	LAX 12:12	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 493 Southwest	PHX 00:03	LAX 01:22	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
OO 5968 SkyWest	PHX 16:08	LAX 17:48	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:24	LAX 17:56	14%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 2318 United	PHX 07:54	LAX 09:27	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 270 Southwest	PHX 12:32	LAX 13:58	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	PHX 07:13	LAX 08:44	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2027 American	PHX 10:48	LAX 12:21	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1061 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 18:25	LAX 20:04	18%	7%	1.0%	87%
AA 1892 American Flight history →	PHX 08:20	LAX 09:49	19%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 1362 American Flight history →	PHX 14:03	LAX 15:30	23%	6%	0.6%	85%
WN 2508 Southwest	PHX 16:37	LAX 18:12	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1331 American Flight history →	PHX 16:57	LAX 18:28	25%	7%	0.6%	65%
WN 2515 Southwest	PHX 21:49	LAX 23:14	27%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON