tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 10:37, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 697 American Flight history → PHX 11:12 LIH 15:13 28% 6% 0.6% 84%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 10h 04m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:44 → SFO 13:01UA 2619 3h 54m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 11h 58m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 3h 08m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 12h 37m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374 3h 20m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 12h 39m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 08:42 → HNL 12:16AS 835 3h 02m Honolulu HNL 15:18 → LIH 16:08AS 1113 10h 26m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 12:43 → SEA 15:41AS 609 2h 32m Seattle SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237 11h 42m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 05:57 → SEA 08:50AS 605 2h 38m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 11h 43m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 08:42 → HNL 12:16AS 835 51m Honolulu HNL 13:07 → LIH 13:57AS 1083 8h 15m 68% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON