tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4329 at 15:50, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4329 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 15:50 LIT 20:47 18% 6% 0.7% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:46 → LIT 13:08AA 3898 · flown by Envoy 5h 58m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → LIT 15:49DL 3027 8h 04m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 50m Salt Lake City SLC 13:11 → LIT 17:14DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 87% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 16:32 → LIT 17:12DL 3025 7h 57m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:49 → LIT 17:10AA 4309 · flown by Envoy 7h 40m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 1h 17m Houston IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa 5h 41m 92% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:08 → ORD 15:56AA 332 3h 53m Chicago ORD 19:49 → LIT 21:49AA 3561 · flown by Envoy 9h 41m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:20 → LIT 16:42UA 5760 · flown by SkyWest 5h 34m 93% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON