Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3417 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3417 PHX 07:42 → MCI 12:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3421 PHX 18:44 → MCI 23:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3417 Southwest	PHX 07:42	MCI 12:25	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 463 Southwest	PHX 09:42	MCI 14:25	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1622 American Flight history →	PHX 09:50	MCI 14:47	16%	4%	0.7%	91%
WN 3418 Southwest	PHX 12:22	MCI 17:05	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4949 Southwest	PHX 16:32	MCI 21:15	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3421 Southwest	PHX 18:44	MCI 23:24	26%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON