Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4537 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4537 PHX 05:57 → MCO 13:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 603 PHX 09:58 → MCO 17:32 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4537 Southwest	PHX 05:57	MCO 13:11	6%	1%	14.9%	no record
WN 3424 Southwest	PHX 22:49	MCO 05:55	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 3833 Southwest	PHX 08:47	MCO 16:01	17%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 603 American	PHX 09:58	MCO 17:32	27%	7%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON