Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	8h 27m	99%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 02m Denver	DEN 10:54 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	6h 18m	98%	84%
American Details →	PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191	2h 05m Washington	DCA 18:04 → MEM 19:28AA 4681 · flown by Republic	8h 58m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700	7h 24m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515	5h 55m	95%	80%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:47 → MEM 14:26AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	7h 16m	98%	80%
American Details →	PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 15:13 → MEM 17:11AA 4651 · flown by Republic	8h 11m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681	7h 41m	95%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 15:33 → ORD 21:24AA 435	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	6h 45m	73%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON