Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 6240 SkyWest	PHX 10:28	MFR 13:15	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 6373 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:54	MFR 19:29	29%	7%	0.7%	88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 17:15 → SLC 19:55DL 1738	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:40 → MFR 22:32DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	97%	87%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:43 → SEA 15:42AS 609	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	6h 30m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:11 → PDX 14:02AS 511	57m Portland	PDX 14:59 → MFR 16:15AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest	5h 04m	86%	75%
United Details →	PHX 10:43 → SFO 12:59UA 2619	3h 48m San Francisco	SFO 16:47 → MFR 18:13UA 1001	7h 30m	99%	74%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 28m Denver	DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337	7h 05m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 17:40 → SEA 20:46DL 2442	49m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	67%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON