Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2654 at 23:05 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2654 PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 404 PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:47 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2654 American Flight history →	PHX 23:05	MIA 06:28	20%	6%	1.1%	80%
AA 1968 American Flight history →	PHX 08:58	MIA 16:36	28%	5%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
AA 1222 American	PHX 15:59	MIA 23:38	30%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 404 American	PHX 12:13	MIA 19:47	34%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON