Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 168 at 08:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 168 PHX 08:42 → MKE 14:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 4861 PHX 18:44 → MKE 00:01 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 168 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:42	MKE 14:20	8%	2%	0.6%	76%
AA 1646 American	PHX 08:34	MKE 14:14	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3430 Southwest	PHX 14:16	MKE 19:36	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4861 Southwest	PHX 18:44	MKE 00:01	29%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON