tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1670 at 08:34, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1670 American Flight history → PHX 08:34 MSN 13:50 19% 4% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 05m Denver DEN 10:57 → MSN 14:07UA 2368 6h 07m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 21:24 → MSN 22:31DL 1599 6h 40m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:08 → ORD 10:42AA 3062 3h 17m Chicago ORD 13:59 → MSN 15:05AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 7h 57m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 1h 46m Chicago ORD 14:14 → MSN 15:10UA 1595 6h 20m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:08 → ORD 15:56AA 332 1h 23m Chicago ORD 17:19 → MSN 18:34AA 3953 · flown by Envoy 6h 26m 90% 69%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 52m Chicago ORD 07:17 → MSN 08:24AA 4048 · flown by Envoy 5h 34m 76% 68%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:26 → ATL 20:28DL 796 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144 7h 12m 85% 68%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 1h 27m Denver DEN 18:00 → MSN 21:16UA 1894 5h 48m 93% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON