Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2553 PHX 07:00 → MSP 12:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 408 PHX 08:34 → MSP 14:03 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2553 Delta Flight history →	PHX 07:00	MSP 12:03	7%	2%	0.5%	95%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:48	MSP 16:55	8%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:42	MSP 14:45	9%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:51	MSP 19:00	10%	4%	0.4%	81%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:00	MSP 22:12	11%	5%	0.5%	84%
AA 408 American Flight history →	PHX 08:34	MSP 14:03	13%	4%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON