Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3819 at 08:02, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3819 Southwest	PHX 08:02	MSY 13:15	12%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 07:00 → MSP 12:03DL 2553	3h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 15:36 → MSY 18:20DL 2695	9h 20m	98%	85%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 13m Denver	DEN 11:05 → MSY 14:47UA 2273	6h 47m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100	5h 47m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 15:43 → MSY 21:28DL 2154	8h 51m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 32m	97%	80%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	1h 03m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	5h 04m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546	1h 32m New York	JFK 15:31 → MSY 18:02DL 1387	10h 02m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678	9h 19m	97%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:57 → SEA 08:51AS 605	46m Seattle	SEA 09:37 → MSY 16:16AS 568	8h 19m	64%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON