Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3435 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3435 PHX 07:47 → OAK 09:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2965 PHX 16:37 → OAK 18:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3435 Southwest	PHX 07:47	OAK 09:59	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4951 Southwest	PHX 01:13	OAK 03:20	8%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 3434 Southwest	PHX 09:27	OAK 11:39	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1897 Southwest	PHX 14:02	OAK 16:14	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2965 Southwest	PHX 16:37	OAK 18:49	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON