Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3166 Southwest	PHX 09:27	OGG 13:04	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 645 American Flight history →	PHX 11:03	OGG 14:32	23%	7%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	11h 37m	98%	81%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 08m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	12h 05m	99%	80%
United Details →	PHX 10:44 → SFO 13:01UA 2619	3h 39m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	11h 33m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:11 → PDX 14:01AS 511	3h 44m Portland	PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353	12h 29m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	8h 07m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 08m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:43 → SEA 15:41AS 609	3h 18m Seattle	SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202	12h 24m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:42 → HNL 12:16AS 835	3h 43m Honolulu	HNL 15:59 → OGG 16:48AS 1436	11h 06m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON