Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 914 at 10:27 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 914 PHX 10:27 → OKC 14:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3442 PHX 18:44 → OKC 23:01 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 914 Southwest	PHX 10:27	OKC 14:51	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 6253 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:47	OKC 13:19	14%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 6320 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:56	OKC 23:15	21%	11%	1.3%	71%
OO 238 SkyWest	PHX 18:41	OKC 23:00	23%	12%	1.3%	no record
WN 3442 Southwest	PHX 18:44	OKC 23:01	28%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON