Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3323 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3323 PHX 07:42 → ONT 09:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3862 PHX 16:37 → ONT 18:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3323 Southwest	PHX 07:42	ONT 09:10	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2833 Southwest	PHX 09:52	ONT 11:20	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	PHX 10:46	ONT 12:12	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
AA 1666 American Flight history →	PHX 17:00	ONT 18:26	25%	9%	0.6%	78%
WN 3862 Southwest	PHX 16:37	ONT 18:05	26%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON