Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 356 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 356 PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 435 PHX 15:33 → ORD 21:24 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 356 United Flight history →	PHX 06:50	ORD 12:28	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 3062 American Flight history →	PHX 05:08	ORD 10:42	11%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 2765 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	ORD 12:51	15%	4%	0.8%	91%
UA 2823 United	PHX 00:05	ORD 05:15	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1148 American Flight history →	PHX 00:50	ORD 06:25	17%	5%	1.0%	79%
UA 1124 United Flight history →	PHX 08:55	ORD 14:31	20%	8%	0.6%	61%
UA 1748 United Flight history →	PHX 11:12	ORD 16:54	23%	10%	0.6%	78%
UA 1842 United Flight history →	PHX 13:10	ORD 18:33	24%	9%	0.6%	83%
UA 2652 United	PHX 11:19	ORD 16:48	25%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 2201 American Flight history →	PHX 18:42	ORD 00:22	25%	7%	1.0%	90%worse than usual
AA 2474 American	PHX 08:31	ORD 14:14	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1402 United	PHX 16:42	ORD 22:21	26%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 332 American Flight history →	PHX 10:08	ORD 15:56	28%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 2569 American	PHX 18:00	ORD 23:34	29%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 695 American Flight history →	PHX 16:38	ORD 22:22	29%	9%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
AA 338 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	ORD 18:08	30%	9%	0.7%	70%
AA 435 American Flight history →	PHX 15:33	ORD 21:24	31%	10%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON