Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3347 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3347 PHX 07:42 → PDX 10:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1478 PHX 16:37 → PDX 19:36 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3347 Southwest	PHX 07:42	PDX 10:41	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 564 Alaska	PHX 06:52	PDX 09:44	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4871 Southwest	PHX 09:27	PDX 12:31	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 511 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 11:11	PDX 14:02	12%	3%	0.7%	89%
AS 742 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:04	PDX 16:46	17%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2684 American	PHX 10:45	PDX 13:44	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 662 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 17:48	PDX 20:30	19%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 1625 American Flight history →	PHX 17:47	PDX 20:39	23%	7%	0.7%	83%
WN 2016 Southwest	PHX 14:32	PDX 17:31	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1478 Southwest	PHX 16:37	PDX 19:36	27%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON