Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3047 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3047 PHX 06:30 → PHL 14:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2721 PHX 13:13 → PHL 21:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3047 American	PHX 06:30	PHL 14:21	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2301 American Flight history →	PHX 23:06	PHL 06:55	13%	5%	1.0%	93%
AA 357 American	PHX 15:43	PHL 23:36	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2721 American Flight history →	PHX 13:13	PHL 21:10	22%	6%	0.7%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692	7h 13m	97%	81%
American Details →	PHX 08:34 → MSN 13:50AA 1670	1h 18m Madison	MSN 15:08 → PHL 18:32AA 5334 · flown by PSA	6h 58m	88%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	50m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PHL 23:21DL 2703	6h 30m	85%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON