Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:51, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2871 American Flight history →	PHX 15:45	PIT 22:52	20%	8%	0.6%	78%
WN 2837 Southwest	PHX 14:47	PIT 22:00	20%	8%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PIT 22:55DL 1134	8h 07m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → PIT 16:38DL 1188	7h 38m	98%	87%
American Details →	PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 08:22 → PIT 11:11AA 4478 · flown by Republic	7h 21m	95%	87%
American Details →	PHX 09:56 → JFK 18:01AA 2339	2h 29m New York	JFK 20:30 → PIT 22:27AA 4611 · flown by Republic	9h 31m	98%	86%
United Details →	PHX 13:10 → ORD 18:33UA 1842	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic	7h 49m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546	1h 11m New York	JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15DL 5685 · flown by Republic	8h 15m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568	8h 23m	98%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 13m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	6h 16m	96%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191	51m Washington	DCA 16:50 → PIT 18:11AA 4446 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	75%	67%
Alaska Details →	PHX 09:01 → SEA 11:59AS 603	51m Seattle	SEA 12:50 → PIT 20:01AS 412	8h 00m	68%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON