tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6244 SkyWest PHX 12:11 PSC 15:04 16% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 5006 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 17:13 PSC 19:59 17% 5% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → PSC 11:44DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest 5h 44m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:15 → SLC 19:55DL 1738 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → PSC 22:10DL 1712 4h 55m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:25 → PSC 19:45DL 762 7h 57m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 3h 35m Seattle SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest 7h 55m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 3h 43m Seattle SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 2h 31m Denver DEN 19:04 → PSC 20:30UA 1737 7h 02m 99% 66%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 05:57 → SEA 08:51AS 605 2h 29m Seattle SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon 6h 22m 98% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 12:43 → SEA 15:42AS 609 46m Seattle SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon 4h 44m 64% 52%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645 51m Seattle SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon 4h 59m 52% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON