tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3832 at 08:39, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3832 Envoy PHX 08:39 RAP 12:16 14% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest 7h 35m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:00 → MSP 12:03DL 2553 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → RAP 15:29DL 3851 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 2h 35m Denver DEN 14:35 → RAP 15:59UA 5891 · flown by SkyWest 5h 51m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:08 → RAP 16:33AA 3532 · flown by Envoy 8h 03m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → RAP 11:30UA 4674 · flown by SkyWest 4h 30m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624 1h 37m Denver DEN 20:58 → RAP 22:17UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest 4h 52m 90% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 1h 22m Denver DEN 17:55 → RAP 19:24UA 5225 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 93% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON