tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 11:46 RDM 14:25 10% 2% 0.7% 87%
AA 3597 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 16:44 RDM 19:16 14% 4% 0.8% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → RDM 11:35DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest 5h 35m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:15 → SLC 19:55DL 1738 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → RDM 22:32DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest 5h 17m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 2h 33m Seattle SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → RDM 12:53UA 2082 6h 53m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662 1h 25m Portland PDX 21:55 → RDM 22:45AS 2057 · flown by Horizon 4h 57m 90% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419 2h 00m Seattle SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43DL 4141 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709 2h 56m Denver DEN 19:29 → RDM 21:05UA 1588 7h 37m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:43 → SFO 12:59UA 2619 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → RDM 18:27UA 2418 7h 44m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 12:43 → SEA 15:42AS 609 54m Seattle SEA 16:36 → RDM 17:48AS 3435 · flown by SkyWest 5h 05m 71% 57%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:40 → SEA 20:46DL 2442 49m Seattle SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest 5h 17m 67% 56%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645 57m Seattle SEA 11:26 → RDM 12:29AS 275 5h 09m 68% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON