Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2838 Southwest	PHX 08:07	RDU 15:31	18%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550	7h 12m	98%	85%
American Details →	PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 08:20 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic	7h 48m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:00 → MSP 12:03DL 2553	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699	8h 12m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932	9h 11m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:10 → SLC 15:48DL 1431	2h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:51 → RDU 00:00 +1DL 402	7h 50m	97%	83%
United Details →	PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873	2h 43m Dulles	IAD 19:00 → RDU 20:13UA 1322	8h 23m	98%	83%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	57m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	6h 16m	94%	82%
Frontier Details →	PHX 06:40 → DEN 09:39F9 1376	2h 06m Denver	DEN 11:45 → RDU 17:14F9 2440	7h 34m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 13:13 → PHL 21:10AA 2721	48m Philadelphia	PHL 21:58 → RDU 23:29AA 2692	7h 16m	69%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON