Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2934 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2934 PHX 07:42 → RNO 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2869 PHX 18:00 → RNO 20:03 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2934 Southwest	PHX 07:42	RNO 09:50	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 8511 Southwest	PHX 00:18	RNO 02:21	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 4242 Southwest	PHX 10:02	RNO 12:15	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 13:57	RNO 15:51	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 1437 American Flight history →	PHX 10:12	RNO 12:20	18%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 3456 Southwest	PHX 16:42	RNO 18:50	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2869 American	PHX 18:00	RNO 20:03	27%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON