Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1658 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1658 PHX 07:42 → SAN 09:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3310 PHX 16:00 → SAN 17:26 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1658 Southwest	PHX 07:42	SAN 09:20	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2861 Southwest	PHX 10:30	SAN 11:50	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1793 American	PHX 07:39	SAN 09:04	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 3461 Southwest	PHX 11:42	SAN 13:15	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 962 Southwest	PHX 15:02	SAN 16:35	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2122 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	SAN 12:11	21%	6%	0.7%	81%
OO 3144 SkyWest	PHX 10:30	SAN 11:56	22%	7%	1.5%	no record
F9 1571 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 14:16	SAN 15:27	26%	10%	0.8%	78%
AA 1951 American Flight history →	PHX 14:10	SAN 15:31	28%	8%	0.7%	68%
AA 480 American Flight history →	PHX 17:00	SAN 18:24	28%	7%	0.7%	73%
WN 3760 Southwest	PHX 16:42	SAN 18:15	29%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 1256 Southwest	PHX 19:14	SAN 20:34	29%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 3310 SkyWest	PHX 16:00	SAN 17:26	30%	9%	1.8%	no record
AS 2045 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 07:11	SAN 08:36	19%	5%	15.7%	81%
AS 2028 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 15:13	SAN 16:35	50%	15%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON