Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2928 American Flight history →	PHX 10:03	SBA 11:56	14%	4%	0.9%	88%
AA 1855 American	PHX 17:17	SBA 19:08	19%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 17:15 → SLC 19:55DL 1738	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	4h 50m	93%	87%
Southwest Details →	PHX 09:02 → LAS 10:24WN 3281	1h 27m Las Vegas	LAS 11:51 → SBA 13:20WN 4297	4h 18m	100%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 34m Denver	DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671	7h 02m	99%	78%
United Details →	PHX 13:28 → DEN 16:33UA 709	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479	7h 31m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	PHX 14:04 → PDX 16:46AS 742	1h 02m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon	6h 00m	84%	75%
United Details →	PHX 10:43 → SFO 12:59UA 2619	3h 18m San Francisco	SFO 16:17 → SBA 17:37UA 639	6h 54m	99%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON