Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1089 at 07:27, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1089 Southwest	PHX 07:27	SDF 14:05	9%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191	3h 39m Washington	DCA 19:38 → SDF 21:35AA 4672 · flown by Republic	10h 05m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195	6h 20m	97%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	53m Denver	DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479	5h 28m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07DL 2842	8h 53m	99%	81%
United Details →	PHX 08:55 → ORD 14:31UA 1124	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic	8h 28m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	8h 58m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:40 → DTW 18:30DL 1070	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	6h 32m	90%	81%
American Details →	PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018	3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:11 → SDF 17:27AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	8h 17m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	50m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	5h 59m	75%	62%
United Details →	PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748	56m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic	6h 11m	74%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON