Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2374 at 09:19 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2374 PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 586 PHX 16:47 → SEA 20:06 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2374 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:19	SEA 12:30	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
AS 605 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 05:57	SEA 08:51	11%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	PHX 12:15	SEA 15:25	12%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 1570 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:59	SEA 10:05	12%	3%	0.7%	95%
WN 800 Southwest	PHX 07:47	SEA 11:01	15%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4207 Envoy	PHX 10:39	SEA 13:52	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:54	SEA 19:02	18%	6%	0.7%	83%
AA 4081 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:41	SEA 10:55	19%	4%	0.7%	97%worse than usual
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:40	SEA 20:46	21%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 14:29	SEA 17:37	21%	6%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 603 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 09:01	SEA 11:59	21%	4%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 2853 Southwest	PHX 11:20	SEA 14:24	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 609 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 12:43	SEA 15:42	22%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 17:55	SEA 21:05	25%	7%	0.7%	84%
AS 645 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 07:20	SEA 10:29	27%	5%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
AS 611 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:37	SEA 17:32	30%	7%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
AS 1422 Alaska	PHX 16:11	SEA 19:09	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 586 Southwest	PHX 16:47	SEA 20:06	38%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON