Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 576 at 10:02 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 576 PHX 10:02 → SFO 12:25 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2860 PHX 14:05 → SFO 16:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 576 Southwest	PHX 10:02	SFO 12:25	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 869 Southwest	PHX 07:47	SFO 10:00	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2619 United Flight history →	PHX 10:43	SFO 12:59	21%	9%	0.6%	66%
AA 6430 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	SFO 10:07	22%	8%	0.5%	94%worse than usual
UA 2449 United Flight history →	PHX 07:43	SFO 10:00	22%	8%	0.6%	25%
UA 593 United	PHX 15:34	SFO 17:51	24%	12%	0.6%	no record
AA 3199 American Flight history →	PHX 11:45	SFO 13:50	26%	8%	0.6%	31%
UA 2100 United	PHX 08:43	SFO 10:59	27%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2421 American Flight history →	PHX 17:04	SFO 19:17	27%	10%	0.6%	69%
WN 3941 Southwest	PHX 16:42	SFO 18:55	30%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2860 American Flight history →	PHX 14:05	SFO 16:05	35%	11%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON