Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1535 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1535 PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 1852 PHX 18:44 → SLC 21:25 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1535 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SLC 08:37	4%	1%	0.4%	97%
WN 1419 Southwest	PHX 09:27	SLC 12:14	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:10	SLC 15:48	9%	3%	0.4%	89%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:15	SLC 19:55	9%	4%	0.4%	88%
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:45	SLC 12:21	9%	2%	0.4%	95%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	SLC 11:37	9%	5%	0.5%	91%
WN 1272 Southwest	PHX 11:47	SLC 14:39	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:18	SLC 13:17	11%	5%	0.4%	100%worse than usual
AA 4968 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:41	SLC 21:25	16%	6%	0.6%	86%
F9 2526 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:13	SLC 19:04	19%	7%	0.9%	85%
WN 3881 Southwest	PHX 16:32	SLC 19:19	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 1852 Southwest	PHX 18:44	SLC 21:25	23%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON