Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3481 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3481 PHX 07:37 → SMF 09:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 464 PHX 18:07 → SMF 20:23 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3481 Southwest	PHX 07:37	SMF 09:50	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4254 Southwest	PHX 09:27	SMF 11:50	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	PHX 07:28	SMF 09:41	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4262 Southwest	PHX 12:37	SMF 14:50	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	PHX 10:03	SMF 12:22	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
MQ 4070 Envoy	PHX 14:00	SMF 16:03	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4208 Southwest	PHX 15:27	SMF 17:40	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3484 Southwest	PHX 17:02	SMF 19:15	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 464 American	PHX 18:07	SMF 20:23	34%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON