Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2885 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day WN 2885 PHX 07:47 → SNA 09:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2471 PHX 16:57 → SNA 18:29 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2885 Southwest	PHX 07:47	SNA 09:21	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2957 Southwest	PHX 11:27	SNA 13:01	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2466 American Flight history →	PHX 07:49	SNA 09:19	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	PHX 10:14	SNA 11:52	18%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 2068 Southwest	PHX 14:37	SNA 16:11	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1656 American	PHX 11:05	SNA 12:39	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	PHX 14:13	SNA 15:40	23%	6%	0.6%	78%
WN 1310 Southwest	PHX 16:37	SNA 18:11	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2471 American Flight history →	PHX 16:57	SNA 18:29	23%	5%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON