Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:25	STS 12:52	15%	4%	1.0%	96%worse than usual
OO 4989 SkyWest	PHX 13:48	STS 16:08	21%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PHX 05:57 → SEA 08:51AS 605	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 10:57 → STS 12:53AS 1347	6h 56m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	PHX 14:37 → SEA 17:32AS 611	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 19:56 → STS 21:51AS 504	7h 14m	96%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON