tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 12:20, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2370 Southwest PHX 08:12 TPA 15:20 14% 2% 1.2% no record
AA 1025 American PHX 08:46 TPA 16:14 20% 3% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 16:05 → TPA 20:19DL 2385 7h 37m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 35m Denver DEN 13:35 → TPA 19:13UA 2375 7h 05m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 6h 14m 92% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 43m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 8h 49m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:18 → TPA 17:53DL 1425 9h 08m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 58m Houston IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501 7h 02m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Los Angeles LAX 10:25 → TPA 18:19DL 749 9h 19m 100% 77%
FrontierDetails → PHX 06:40 → DEN 09:39F9 1376 1h 43m Denver DEN 11:22 → TPA 16:57F9 2748 7h 17m 98% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON