tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3645 Envoy PHX 13:40 TUL 18:11 19% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 2871 Southwest PHX 15:02 TUL 19:36 28% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → TUL 13:00UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 00m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:10 → SLC 15:48DL 1431 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 5h 30m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 46m Houston IAH 14:38 → TUL 16:27UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 17m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 2h 01m Chicago ORD 08:26 → TUL 10:27AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 7h 37m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624 1h 34m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 89% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837 8h 59m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 2h 58m Houston IAH 20:01 → TUL 21:48UA 1927 7h 28m 97% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:33 → ORD 21:24AA 435 1h 06m Chicago ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 6h 58m 71% 55%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:26 → ATL 20:28DL 796 47m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → TUL 22:18DL 2043 6h 52m 73% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON