Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 362 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 362 PHX 07:57 → TUS 09:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1036 PHX 18:59 → TUS 19:54 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 362 Southwest	PHX 07:57	TUS 09:01	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:24	TUS 08:16	13%	2%	0.7%	90%
OO 6366 SkyWest	PHX 10:31	TUS 11:36	14%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:48	TUS 09:54	14%	6%	0.5%	83%
OO 6332 SkyWest	PHX 12:49	TUS 13:49	16%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	PHX 13:48	TUS 14:44	17%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 6205 SkyWest	PHX 15:43	TUS 16:43	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 9916 SkyWest	PHX 14:18	TUS 15:15	19%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 6457 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:38	TUS 19:36	25%	10%	0.7%	81%
WN 1036 Southwest	PHX 18:59	TUS 19:54	32%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON