Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2800 American	PHX 08:57	XNA 13:59	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4086 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:49	XNA 20:30	16%	5%	0.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:42 → XNA 14:03AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	6h 53m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:43 → XNA 17:36DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	5h 51m	95%	85%
American Details →	PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:16 → XNA 15:37AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	98%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	58m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771	8h 59m	95%	79%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 30m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	94%	78%
American Details →	PHX 10:08 → ORD 15:56AA 332	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 18:59 → XNA 20:52AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	8h 44m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:32DL 1710	8h 18m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338	51m Chicago	ORD 18:59 → XNA 20:52AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	6h 37m	63%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON