Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1504 PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1568 PIT 18:21 → ATL 20:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1504 Delta Flight history →	PIT 05:43	ATL 07:26	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	PIT 11:22	ATL 13:05	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 1383 Delta Flight history →	PIT 07:59	ATL 09:47	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	PIT 13:57	ATL 15:45	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	PIT 19:23	ATL 21:10	12%	5%	2.8%	89%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	PIT 18:21	ATL 20:13	13%	6%	1.7%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON