tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3499 at 08:38, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3499 Southwest PIT 08:38 AUS 10:59 4% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 42m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:46 → ORD 07:19UA 1803 1h 42m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 13m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:30 → DEN 09:59UA 1765 3h 45m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 9h 28m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:36 → ORD 09:30UA 3461 · flown by Republic 2h 17m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 05m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 6h 52m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 59m Houston IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859 8h 09m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:22 → ATL 13:05DL 1363 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 5h 28m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:59 → CLT 07:34AA 376 1h 02m Charlotte CLT 08:36 → AUS 10:28AA 818 5h 29m 94% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 15:15 → DFW 17:14AA 2664 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:11 → AUS 19:18AA 1588 5h 03m 73% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON