Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5690 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 5690 PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 386 PIT 13:41 → BOS 15:33 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5690 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:00	BOS 08:00	3%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 5678 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:50	BOS 12:39	8%	3%	0.7%	87%
B6 1286 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 09:09	BOS 10:46	10%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 5731 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 14:25	BOS 16:20	12%	6%	0.7%	72%
B6 2186 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 20:32	BOS 22:24	17%	11%	0.9%	79%
B6 386 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 13:41	BOS 15:33	19%	10%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON