Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 376 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 376 PIT 05:59 → CLT 07:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1736 PIT 14:35 → CLT 16:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 376 American Flight history →	PIT 05:59	CLT 07:34	9%	3%	0.7%	97%
AA 2310 American Flight history →	PIT 10:20	CLT 11:55	12%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 384 American Flight history →	PIT 07:59	CLT 09:34	13%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 9788 American	PIT 22:58	CLT 00:36	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1715 American	PIT 18:31	CLT 20:04	25%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1736 American	PIT 14:35	CLT 16:00	27%	6%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON