Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5842 PIT 10:08 → DTW 11:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5841 PIT 17:10 → DTW 18:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5842 Republic	PIT 10:08	DTW 11:25	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5841 Republic	PIT 17:10	DTW 18:31	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 5319 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 06:30	DTW 07:44	14%	7%	5.8%	86%
DL 5303 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 12:25	DTW 13:34	14%	7%	2.3%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON