Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 639 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 639 PIT 07:53 → FLL 10:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 3477 PIT 18:11 → FLL 20:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 639 Southwest	PIT 07:53	FLL 10:30	15%	3%	3.5%	no record
B6 2005 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 06:00	FLL 08:42	16%	5%	3.7%	84%
G4 3477 Allegiant	PIT 18:11	FLL 20:45	35%	15%	3.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON