tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:43, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3511 Southwest PIT 10:18 LAS 12:14 9% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 4414 Southwest PIT 17:08 LAS 18:54 22% 10% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 44m Dulles IAD 09:02 → LAS 11:09UA 1323 8h 03m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 37m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 58m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 17m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 1h 18m Dulles IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156 7h 39m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:30 → DEN 09:59UA 1765 1h 23m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 54m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → LAS 14:50DL 549 9h 51m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:53 → SFO 09:09UA 2820 1h 33m San Francisco SFO 10:42 → LAS 12:28UA 611 8h 35m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:59 → CLT 07:34AA 376 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → LAS 12:23AA 2470 9h 24m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAS 17:51UA 1875 6h 41m 70% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON